2021 Local and Devolved Election Results

Summary

  • Voters in England, Scotland and Wales went to the polls last week for local and devolved elections.
  • Following the results, the Conservatives can claim victory in England after gaining 13 councils. The party also achieved their objective of holding the mayoralties in Tees Valley and the West Midlands.
  • The Conservatives performed particularly well in the North and parts of the Midlands but did lose some seats in previous strongholds in parts of the South.
  • The tone of the election results was set on Friday morning following the Conservatives taking the Hartlepool parliamentary constituency from Labour in a by-election.
  • Labour performed well in some areas of the South and took the West of England, and Cambridgeshire & Peterborough mayoralties from the Conservatives.
  • The SNP fell short of an overall majority in Scotland but there will be a majority of pro-independence MSPs. Nicola Sturgeon will remain First Minister with a minority administration and has said she will call a referendum on Scottish independence.
  • Welsh Labour tied their record high 30 seats in the Welsh Senedd which is one seat short of an overall majority. The Conservatives overtook Plaid Cymru to come second with 16 seats.

Mayoral Contests

London

 

2021 London Mayoral Election Results

Candidate

Party

First Round

Second Round

Sadiq Khan

Labour

40.0%

-4.2

55.2%

-1.6

Shaun Bailey

Conservative

35.3%

+0.3

44.8%

+1.6

Sian Berry

Green

7.8%

+2.0

 

 

Luisa Porritt

Liberal Democrats

4.4%

-0.2

 

 

 

  • Sadiq Khan (Labour) was elected in the second round beating Shaun Bailey (Conservative).
  • Khan’s first round vote was down 4.2% on his 2016 victory. This was likely due to a significant number of voters choosing to give their first preference to one of the many minor parties and independents running.
  • Bailey exceeded the expectations of many who had predicted him to do worse that Zac Goldsmith in 2016. Instead, he matched the first round share of the vote and slightly closed the gap in the second round.
  • The Government are expected to be bringing in legislation to change the mayoral voting system to ‘first past the post’. This would mean that a Conservative candidate in the next election would only need to bridge a 4.7% gap to take the mayoralty.
  • Full results are available here.

 

Manchester

 

2021 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election Results

Candidate

Party

First Round

Second Round

Andy Burnhan

Labour

67.3%

+3.9

 

 

Laura Evans

Conservative

19.6%

-3.1

 

 

Melanie Horrocks

Green

4.4%

+2.0

 

 

Simon Lepori

Liberal Democrats

3.2%

-2.9

 

 

 

  • Andy Burnham (Labour) was re-elected in the first round with over two thirds of the vote. He won in every single ward in Greater Manchester.
  • This was one of Labour’s best results of the elections and has immediately led to suggestions that Burnham could be a challenger for the Labour leadership.

Other mayoral races

  • West Yorkshire
    • Tracy Brabin (Labour) won the inaugural contest and will be the first Mayor of West Yorkshire and the first women to be a metro mayor in the UK.
    • She received 43.1% of the first round vote and beat her Conservative challenger 60-40 in the second round.
    • She has now resigned from Parliament triggering a by-election in her Batley and Spen constituency. This constituency was not as close as Hartlepool in 2019 but will still be seen as a possibility for another gain by the Conservatives.
  • West Midlands
    • Andy Street (Conservative) was re-elected as Mayor. He received 49% of the first round vote share which is up 7 points from 2017. Labour had hoped to take the mayoralty but their vote share marginally fell.
  • Tees Valley
    • This was one of the most significant Conservative wins on the night apart from the Hartlepool (which is in the Tees Valley) by-election. Ben Houchen (Conservative) was re-elected with 72.8% of the first round vote. He received 39.5% in his 2017 shock victory.
    • Houchen’s win in 2017 was seen as one of the first Conservative gains in parts of the country which would later give the Conservatives a majority in 2019.
  • Liverpool and Liverpool City Region
    • Liverpool has two elected mayors; one for the city council and one who covers the wider regional combined authority.
    • Steve Rotherham (Labour) was re-elected with 58.3% of the first round vote. This is marginally down from 2017 but still shows the area to be relatively safe for Labour.
    • Joanne Anderson (Labour) was elected Mayor of the Liverpool City Council. However, Labour lost over 20% of the first round vote share and an independent candidate received 22% of the vote to force a second round. This was due to the political fallout of the previous Mayor’s, Joe Anderson (no relation), arrest.
  • West of England
    • Labour took the West of England Mayoralty from the Conservatives who had narrowly won it in 2017. Although the Conservatives actually increased their first round vote share, Labour gained even more and eventually took a comfortable 60-40 win in the second round.
  • Cambridgeshire and Peterborough
    • Another gain for Labour after beating the Conservative incumbent.
    • James Palmer (Conservative) actually increased his first round share of the vote and beat Nik Johnson (Labour) 40.5%-32.8% in this round. However, Labour picked up most of the transfers to win the second round with 51.3% to 48.7%.
    • The Conservatives would of won this race under the Government’s plans to change the voting system in mayoral elections.
  • Other races
    • The Labour incumbent in Salford received almost 60% of the first round vote to defeat Rabbi Arnie Saunders (Conservative).
    • Labour held the mayoralties in Bristol, Doncaster and North Tynseside.

London Assembly

2021 London Assembly Election Results

Party

Constiuency Seats

List Seats

Total Seats

Labour

9 (-)

2 (-1)

11 (-1)

Conservative

5 (-)

4 (+1)

9 (+1)

Green

0 (-)

3 (+1)

3 (+1)

Liberal Democrats

0 (-)

2 (+1)

2 (+1)

 

  • Labour lost a seat on the London Assembly with the Conservatives, Greens and Liberal Democrats each picking up a seat.
  • All constituencies were held by the incumbent party.
  • The Conservatives held Havering and Redbridge with an increased majority despite it being targeted by Labour.
  • Anne Clarke (Labour) won Barnet and Camden with the vote share down 2% on 2016.
  • Labour came closest to a gain in West Central where the Conservative majority fell by over 12,000 votes to just 2,225.
  • Labour lost a list seat due to losing 2% of the vote share on the London-wide ballot.
  • Two Jewish Assembly members were elected:
    • Leonie Cooper (Labour), Merton & Wandsworth
    • Zack Polanski (Green), London-wide

Council Elections

  • The Conservatives enjoyed success in council elections gaining control of 13 councils while Labour lost control of 8.
  • Many of these gains came in northern councils where the these seats were last competed in 2016 when there was a significant pre-referendum vote share for UKIP. The Conservatives benefitted from many of these voters switching to them.
  • The Conservatives will have some concern after losing some seats in parts of the South. While the party is winning in some areas for the first time, it will have to pay attention to make sure it holds on to the areas which it has held for many years.
  • The councils with the largest Jewish populations did not switch control. The Liberal Democrats took control of St Albans which was previously under no overall control.
  • The Conservatives held the by-election in the Edgware ward of Barnet with 63% of the vote.
  • Labour gained the Sedgley seat in Bury from the Conservatives. 33.8% of residents were Jewish in this ward according to the 2011 Census. There was a 10% swing from Conservatives to Labour in the seat. The Conservatives held Pilkington Park while Labour held St Mary’s and Unsworth.
  • In Hertfordshire, Labour took both Borehamwood divisions from the Conservatives. Laurence Brass (Liberal Democrats) took the Bushey North division from the Conservative incumbent. Brass is the former treasurer of the Board of Deputies.
  • Labour gained the seat on Hertsmere Council in the Borehamwood Kenilworth by-election.